Latest Brexit Poll Update: Expect the UK to Vote to Leave the EU

Latest news for BREXIT -19 June 2016

EDT By Global Traders Association Comment

March 20, 2016, 09:43:10 AM 

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There was a poll taken last week by The Telegraph that showed the Brexit outcome in a statistical tie without considering the motivation of people to vote. When the likelihood of voters to vote was taken into account, the outcome shifted to 52-47 in favor of Brexit. So the turnout may be the key with those more motivated likely to vote.

Meanwhile, our ongoing poll, which asks the question, Do you expect the June 23 Brexit referendum result to be the UK leaving or staying in the EU?, continues to show an overwhelming expectation that the vote will be to leave the EU (see results below): Note, we do not approach people to take part in our poll and those who decide to participate appear to be motivated to express their opinion.

Our results remain in sharp contrast to polls showing an outcome in public polls that is too close to call. As a result, we again asked our respondents for their views on why they think there is such a disparity between the polls. Once again, the insights we received were very revealing:

I think that 70pc of most Brits are eurosceptic. The majority when faced with an anonymous online poll where there is little risk are quite happy to vote "leave". Might be a different story on Election Day.  Also it is not very politically correct to say you want to leave among 'polite' company. If anybody at work asks me ...I'm undecided. Genuinely, I worry that in some companies a dim view might be taken of those who support leave. 

The problem with commercial polls on the subject is that they target specific demographics, all demographics that may not have a specific interest in the subject but once asked, may give an opinion.  That is not to say that it is uppermost in their minds.  The type of person that will contribute to your poll are the ones with a specific interest in the subject whether it be in or out of the EU.

The younger generations are happy to divulge every part of their lives on social media to whomever will listen, whereas the older generations value their privacy. 

Brexit Poll Results:

The overall results stayed steady at 85%-15% expecting Brexit with around 90% of UK respondents polled this past week again expecting the result to be to exit the EU.

Overall results:   Brexit = leaving the EU   No Brexit = staying in EU

Mar 6                    58%                                      42%

Mar 13                  85%                                       15%

Mar 20                 85%                                       15%

To sum up, there continues to be an overwhelmingly strong sentiment, especially by UK respondents, which make up most of the poll that the referendum will result in a British exit from the EU. This has been a consistent trend throughout our polling. Perhaps the side in favor of Brexit feels more motivated to express its expectations as the UK equity and forex markets are not showing a similar concern. However, as noted, if the trend seen in our poll proves to be on target, then keep an eye on those markets for confirmation although it is a long time yet before the actual vote.

Jay Meisler, founder
Global Traders Association

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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