The Otium Post

The Otium Post


EMPIRICUS - Exactly two years after the death of Brazil, we are ready for a fresh start

Exactly two years after the death of Brazil, we are ready for a fresh start

Here are 10 points to PROVE that you are given the greatest opportunity to build equity since 1994

... And how this movement can pay you now, a profit of 400%

Dear reader,

The Brazilian economy ended exactly two years ago, on July 28, 2014.

I announced it personally that day.

I received a number of threats in response.

I suffered offenses from party activists, was sued by President Dilma Rousseff and was the subject of several reports by dirty defamatory blogs Press ...

But I'm not here to remember the past, nor to boast of having previously warned of the destruction of the country.

This is page turning.

The crisis had its repercussions and led us to something new, which is starting right now.

That's what matters to you. This is what I will cover in this document.

Working since on a new thesis. Now, I will gather all the necessary arguments to prove it.

What is taking form at the moment, only finds a parallel in Brazilian history, by the name of a Real Plan.

A new Brazil begins today.

In this new phase, we take appropriate action against
which may represent the greatest asset multiplication opportunity since 1994.

In this letter, I will give you all the details about, presenting 10 points that prove the ongoing reconstruction of Brazil ...

And pointing will close as you are just one step away to multiply your capital with this movement, with a potential gain of 400% in just one operation.

The following foregoing argument is strictly technical and you will prove by A + B, a big movement of capital has begun and can change the financial level of your family forever.

Something capable of accelerating the exchange of your home, make it possible to purchase the car you always dreamed and ensure better education for your child, possibly abroad ...

I speak of a change of simple attitude that will allow you to build a cash cushion to give any security to his family for more than a generation.

But for that, you need to act now.

Large investors and financial institutions have begun to position themselves.

There is a lot of money at stake and it's not in their interest to share this cake.

Why am I sharing this with you?

First, it is my fiduciary duty.

As chief strategist of the largest consultancy in Brazil investments, Empiricus, I'm paid to identify large financial movements and allow my readers earn money with them.

This is my job, my calling - and the data suggest that I have done it very well, as you can make sure what I will present in the sequence.

Second, because we have a unique chance to change the game ...

Historically, the major equity multiplication movements benefited only a very restricted group of investors.

Fortunes were built by industry professionals from similar movements (many of them potential well below this), without which the general public had access to that information.

What is even worse: in similar situations in the past, at the time when ordinary people had access to information, she had come previously to large investors.

So people like you were used to only "give out" the professional investors who had already positioned before at much cheaper prices.

That is, usually ordinary citizens pay more for something that the professional investor, belonging to a bank or brokerage firm, had bought before for a fraction of that amount.

Fortunes were built by professionals in the market in just this way, at the expense of the Brazilian taxpayer.

And that is repeating itself now. It occurs at this very moment.

This time, however, we have a chance to change the game.

We can do different, not letting a historical movement valuation benefit only a very small group of members of the financial market, concerned only with their own interests.

All gain with this opportunity.

I could not save an information on this just for me, rather than something that can benefit many people frontally. That would hurt the very reason for the existence of Empiricus.

The company was founded with this purpose: to bring the best investment advice to as many people as possible.

As the largest financial consultancy in Brazil, both in terms of revenues, and the number of readers and hit history, our main asset to our independence.

We do not sell financial products to recommend to clients, such as banks, nor maintain any trade, loans or financial intermediation contracts with the companies we evaluated.

Nor do we gain from transactions on our platform, such as brokerage firms, encouraging customers to operate more and more.

Financial information is the beginning, middle and end of our business. We make money if our player earns money, looking, so for more information.

Our mission is to empower people, democratizing access to the best investment recommendations and enabling ordinary citizens have profit opportunities previously restricted to market professionals - many of them unknown even by professional investors.

Our deal is: you point out the best opportunity to profit from this very moment, without making any distinction (tariffs or treatment) between you and another person who may have more money, as occurs in traditional banking.

It is exactly what you will see in the next lines:

The 10 points that prove the ongoing reconstruction in Brazil with direct impact on their standard of living;
How this move will affect the daily lives of the Brazilian and can generate the greatest opportunity for you to build equity since 1994;
And an operation capable of rendering him now, a profit of around 400%.
You need to be fully comfortable in taking a simple approach that can change the financial situation of his family once and for all. Therefore, I will offer him guarantees to put this operation into practice.

Necessary, however, that you commit to something important: the following information is valuable in itself, but you will only get value it to act now.

Reinforcement: a large flow of capital is underway and major investors are already positioning themselves.

You will have full access to information and tools necessary, but it is only you get the most out of them in time.

Therefore, the guarantees that I am offering you is for a limited time. I can not be charged retrospectively by readers who do the operation out of timing, requiring similar returns to those who stood previously.

It is essential that you are fully aware that the opportunity in question by engaging immediate gains, requires an instant attitude.

Throughout this document I will explain in detail how much money is at stake here and why you need to act urgently.

But before we take the next steps, practical, you need to be fully aware of a few points:

The following thesis offend certain audiences and perhaps it may seem absurd at first instance;

This document contrary to the interests of some groups and reveals information hitherto unknown to ordinary citizens;

As will become clear, you will find no projection in the next lines. Only an algebraic demonstration, based on hard data.

As a worker, student, businessman, father or mother of the family, it is essential that you fully are aware of the 10 points that will list now.

Already exposed them on previous occasions, both for readers of my advice as in economics conference ...

As happened with "Brazil's End", some listeners did not agree with the conclusions I reached. But none of them could refute the arguments of my research.

That's right: NONE.

What you see below is not an optimistic thesis on the economy as those that have been disclosed so; almost all of them built solely on arguments of hope, patriotism or desire to Brazil to make sure.

I write with the exemption of those who, when things were bad, was pessimistic, as summarized in the thesis The End of Brazil. Similarly, when things start to get better, I need to be optimistic.

All conclusions of this document are based on material elements. These elements will lead to an irrefutable conclusion, with an immediate impact on your pocket.

More than a picture of the ongoing transformation in Brazil, these 10 points will impact on their standard of living and determine its investment capacity in the coming months and years.

It is highly recommended that you take note of the following points.

We are about to observe a social and economic change as we have seen a few times in our history, with significant impacts on the daily life of every citizen.



There are at least six years we have been the victims of a misguided economic policy.

When we thought we had consolidated the anti-inflation policy, after years of efforts to stabilize the economy with the Real Plan, we started to make trivial mistakes, with huge impacts on society.

Among the abuses that have been committed in recent years, it is, for example, price controls as a way to make up inflation rates - a practice that has gained strength in pre-election period.

As a reflection of this policy, the official inflation index (IPCA) not only disrespected the target of 4.5% as the ceiling burst tolerance (6.5%) and beyond, reaching double digits.

In managing Alexandre Tombini ahead of the Central Bank, there was not even one year of compliance with the inflation target.

It's shameful.

A movement that, obviously, does away with any credibility of the Central Bank to control inflation expectations, fueling an inflationary vicious cycle.

But let me talk about the new version of this story ...

The latest picture of IPCA shows the substantial turn of inflation from the beginning of 2016 in response to the improved outlook for the public finances and the exchange rate with the change of government.

What's even better: inflation expectations for 2017 and especially for 2018 are in free fall, converging to the target of 4.5% pursued by the Central Bank - which many remembered even existed.

From early April until early July this year, inflation expectations measured by the Focus report of the Central Bank, increased from 6.0% to 5.3% in 2017 and from 5.4% to 4.6% 2018.

What does that mean?

The Central Bank is regaining control of inflation expectations - and this is something really important.

Thus, the Central Bank has facilitated its goal the convergence of work, which gives the monetary authority degrees of freedom to stimulate the economy and substantially increases the visibility (and therefore trust) of consumers and entrepreneurs.

This environment allows the Central Bank to reduce interest rates ahead. There are already excellent economists saying that the interest rate should return to the house of 10% per year - and possibly a digit - soon.

If on one hand the soaring inflation reduced the citizens' purchasing power and had a strong impact on the competitiveness of industry (which had to pass on high costs of raw materials and labor, work in an economy in recession), dynamics will now be reversed.

You may notice a significant improvement in their purchasing power in the coming months, with direct reflection on their accounts at the end of the month.


Two years ago when I warned that "industrial policy is a resounding failure" and "the industry will become less", was harshly criticized by advocates of a government that supposedly had an explicit industrial policy.

A short time later, they proved the real sector indicators of the situation in Brazil: it was back 12 years in time.

Source: Folha de S. Paulo

To give you idea of ​​the size of the damage, last year 277 industries have closed in Brazil, number 12.2% higher than that observed in 2014 ...

At the same time, the number of unemployed in the country rose by no less than 41.5% in a year, surpassing the mark of more than 11 million people.

You must know someone close who lost emprego.Isso, if you yourself did not have his job threatened.

At this point, there is no denying the tragedy of industrial policy in recent years, which resulted in drastic falls in the level of production, accumulation of inventories and wave of layoffs and bankruptcies in the sector.

But there is something new going on.

I ask for a second of your attention to the following chart.

It shows the evolution in the industry confidence level in recent years.

Obviously we are still far from an ideal level - and I will not deny you that by the amount of deterioration, the sector of the reconstruction process will be slow ...

... But the first sign of a potential recovery in industrial activity already appears in the improvement of industry expectations.

And this is not an isolated case or given point.

The Industry Confidence Index, the Getulio Vargas Foundation, registered in June this year its fourth consecutive monthly increase. It reached its highest level in more than a year, scoring 84.9 points.

The rebound in business confidence is a necessary step prior to, second time, the resumption of investment in the sector.

A first practical reflection of this movement can already be seen in the installed capacity utilization (Nuci) that, on a quarterly basis, recorded in June measuring its first increase since the third quarter of 2013.

There were more than three years that the domestic industry did not know it was an indicator of improvement.

It does not stop there…


Unless you are part of a group of exception, their consumption pattern was severely impacted in recent years.

With the collapse of inflation and the fall in the level of household income, more than half of Brazilians had to change their habits in the past two years.

Travel destinations have changed, the school children had to be revised, the form (and the site) with your family shops may have changed ...

Up to this point.

After a long history of decay, the indicator that measures the degree of optimism about the evolution of the Brazilian family financial situation rose no less than 6.2 points in June this year.

In July, the indicator accumulated his third consecutive increase, reaching the highest since February last year.

As well as industry data, there is still a long way to go. However, for the first time in five years we met an inflection point, a sign reversal of the trend.

"When consumers are pessimistic, even though the economy is running well, it is likely that there will be a fall. When he is optimistic, inaugurated a new virtuous cycle "defined the former Central Bank President Gustavo Loyola.

And the best: it is beginning to be reflected in daily life and expectations for the economy as a whole ...


The main issue for the Brazilian recession in recent years was not the international crisis, but rather the distrust with the trajectory of the Brazilian public debt.

We come to be seen as a potential deadbeat.

Now, finally we decided to tackle this problem head-on.

Within days of the new government, we have some concrete initiatives in this direction.

For example…

- Ceiling expenses: was presented to the Senate a constitutional amendment establishing a ceiling for public spending for a period of 20 years;

- Pension Reform: the government commissioned study to on the single pension scheme (with the same rules for public and private sector)

- Tax Goal: an estimated deficit of R $ 170 billion in 2017, the proposed fiscal target sent to Congress soon a much smaller hole of R $ 139 billion.

The expected adjustment of public accounts, inflation more behaved and improved confidence of entrepreneurs and consumers have generated a wave of revisions to the projections for the Brazilian economy.

Source: O Estado de S. Paulo

Source: The Globe

But there is a recurring problem in these projections: in addition to late, they still underestimate the true potential of the ongoing recovery.

I have called attention to how things can improve sudden way.

Recently I published my clients excerpts from conversations with some of the greatest entrepreneurs of Brazil. In one of these conversations, with a big name in the consumer and retail sector, I heard the following:

"I do not know yet whether it will come in the third or fourth quarter, but this will improve once with an unexpected jump. No one is looking at how these processes are not linear, especially when the comparison base is very weak. "

Econometric models are terrible at capturing inflections and the turn will be permeated by leaps.

In the process of gradual improvement, forecasts for the Brazilian economy already point in 2017 as the year of recovery: the market consensus represented by the Focus report, currently indicates 1.1% growth for the Brazilian economy in the coming year.

As I say, the recovery of GDP can be much more powerful than all are considering.

And no shortage of signs in this direction ...


One of the greatest weight factors behind the strong setback of the Brazilian economy is the fall in investments, called gross fixed capital formation.

Last year this indicator suffered a fall of 14.1%, the biggest drop since began the historical series of the IBGE in 1996.

Thus, the investment rate closed 2015 at meager 18.2% of GDP, well below the previous year (20.2%).

Perhaps you have not realized the size of it ...

A key variable for sustainable and long-term growth without inflation, is investment. This is because, when investing, the entrepreneur increases its production capacity ahead of and can respond to increases in demand offering more products.

It is, however, something that was simply overlooked in recent years ...

Source: The Globe

On the same day he took office, the interim president Michel Temer released the provisional measure 727/16, opening up new possibilities for the federal government to encourage infrastructure works and sell state-owned companies.

Among other duties, the measure alone:

1) Centralize decisions on concessions, public-private partnerships and privatization in one body, chaired by Temer;

2) It requires technical bodies (such as Ibama) to expedite the granting of licenses;

3) Creates within one BNDES an area focused on the development of infrastructure projects;

4) Change the criteria for grants, the minimum rate for the call "adequeda rate", which takes into account other qualitative factors and thus substantially increases the attractiveness of the projects to the private sector;

Although a small sample, it is more than has been done in years in Brazil. And the best: with a term of day.

For the first time in more than a decade, government policy fails to focus on the demand side, by granting incentives to credit and consumption for certain sectors of the economy, to focus on the real problem: productivity gains, stimulating side supply of goods and services.

And now we can already speak the word "privatization" without running the risk of being banned from the country.

There is a certain consensus among the most competent economists that this is the major problem in Brazil. If we are still far from address we now at least we have practical initiatives in this direction.

And the speed of the movement, held on the day of inauguration of the new President will treat-a new government priority.



After several years of living with an economic picture of little credibility, we finally have the chance to get across a serious monetary policy.

Forget the names of Arno Augustin (former Secretary of Treasury who assumed responsibility for tax pedaling), Guido Mantega (former Chairman of the Board of Directors of Petrobras during the pricing policy that destroyed the company's accounts, recently quoted in Operation zealots) and Alexandre Tombini (former President of the Central Bank has allowed inflation to run over the target ceiling).

Faced with the need to make the fiscal adjustment and return to sobriety public accounts, he was appointed as Secretary of the Treasury the excellent Mansueto Almeida, simply the greatest expert on public accounts that this country has today.

In turn, the new president of the Central Bank, Ilan Goldfajn, sought the name of the private sector, arrived with a harder speech that was supposed to inflation. That way, away assumptions that interest may fall in short-term ...

It was a wise move. With one stone, Ilan, anchored inflation expectations, down the long interest and suggested that monetary easing will not happen by force.

Having effectively created the conditions to cut interest rates, we can do it more consistently and more deeply. Slowly it goes further.

At the same time, the Finance Minister Henrique Meirelles, a name that always pleased the market, positively surprised with the announcement of the fiscal target:

Source: Financier

As commented on the occasion Zeina Latif, chief economist at XP Investimentos: "The R $ 139 billion show a victory of the economic team, who managed to convince the other side of the importance of signal something harder, more ambitious."

If the economy is guided by expectations, the credibility of economic policy responds directly to the confidence in who leads.

A credibility shock was needed, and was given up.

And not enough technical background and appreciation of markets, this team enjoys something fundamental, which lacked earlier: autonomy.



The main threat to the evolution of the points mentioned here would be a step back, is the return of Dilma in the final vote of Congress or by any unconstitutional maneuver.

The obvious consequence of this would be the redemption of the policies of the last years, destruction of the economic fundamentals of the country.

But Dilma knows no support base has to rule, nor has any resources to reverse the game in the Senate.

Politically, Dilma is a dead weight.

With more than two thirds of the House to vote against their management, around the president would represent the complete standstill of the economic agenda and the certainty of not carrying out fundamental reforms.

Aware of this, the very president raises the flag of the call for general elections, alternative affront to the constitution - and consequently question the stability of institutions (neuralgic point for investor confidence).

The market, however, still assigns a risk factor (however small) to the possibility of redemption of the ghosts of the past few years ...

And it can generate a large wave of asset valuation.

Let me explain.

Some actions, most notably those with the highest trading volume of the Brazilian Stock Exchange recorded significant gains earlier this year ...

... Just by Dilma drop perspective.

Source: Infomoney

This movement, however, has been paralyzed since Temer took over temporarily.

How to explain this?

The thesis Effect of Possibility, the Nobel prize Daniel Kahnemann, is perhaps the most accurate representation to evaluate the consequences and duration of impeachment on Brazilian markets.

In it, Kahneman demonstrates that investors do not incorporate the materialisation probabilities of linear events on asset prices; but overestimate the extremes: the large price variations tend to come when the chance of materializing specific event goes from 0% to 5% (Possible Effect), and when it passes from 95% to 100% (certain effect).

Translating, Brazilian assets have been through the effect Possibility, recording valuations for the chance to Dilma's fall and rise of Temer.

In turn, the interim government of Temer has signaled improvement, but the fall of ministers raises fears about the possibility of "back Dilma", while important votes depend on the confirmation of his government (a new event management) in final vote of impeachment proceedings in the Senate.

Only then will we have the certain effect and the potential second wave of expressive vaorização of Brazilian assets.

Is clear that the analysis here is strictly economic. The Empiricus is nonpartisan. We are pro-market. And the market has proved to be more receptive to government consolidation Temer compared to other alternatives.

The first evidence of this great flow of capital towards Brazil can already be observed.

And it's just a small sample of what's to come ...


This is a clear sign that the world begins to look at Brazil differently. And more than that, it begins to act.

A large flow of capital into the country is going on right now, with inevitable effects on the exchange rate.

Compared to the major global currencies, the real appreciated over 20% against the dollar in the first six months of 2016.

Source: Infomoney


There are a number of reasons behind this movement, ranging from the low base of comparison (the Brazilian currency had been severely punished in the last two years), the excess liquidity at the global level, the recovery of confidence in the Brazilian economy.

A significant appreciation of the real in relation to international currencies will have direct impact on inflation (import of finished products and raw materials will be cheaper), the trade balance and on companies with debt in dollars.

With interest rates zeroed in major international economies, the world begins to see Brazil as a safer destination (and profitable) for applications.

Just connect the dots:

international liquidity excess, with zeroed interest (or even negative) in the major economies, lack of profitability of investments in the rest of the world, Brazilian assets extremely depreciated and Brazilian economy improving its foundations after consecutive years of recession ...

This combination of factors can raise Brazilian assets to another level.


Brazil has today a completely disparate picture of the rest of the world. And it can be extremely positive.

While most economies in the world comes from a recovery (growth) in recent years, seeing the possibility of a slowdown, just the opposite experience.

We plunged into the biggest recession in more than a century here, and just now beginning to identify signs of improvement in our economy ...

After years and years of cash injection in the economies in order to minimize the impact of the 2008 crisis, the world today carries excess liquidity scenario.

The Bank of England injected 3.1 billion pounds in the system only after Brexit.

The European Central Bank (ECB) suggests possibility of extending quantitative easing program.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) should also further expand its balance sheet.

The Federal Reserve, the US, in turn, injected trillions of dollars into the market in recent years and hardly increase the interest rate in the short term - chances are growing that monetary tightening will be only in 2017.

The chart provides a picture of the balance of the major banks world central to GDP of their economies.

He gives a dimension of how much money was put into the financial system in recent years.

To get an idea, only the US Federal Reserve injected more than 4.5 trillion dollars in the system since 2008, via stimulus programs and quantitative easing ...

Where does all this money go?

This creates a highly favorable environment for resource flows to emerging countries ...

Source: Bloomberg

... Especially those fairly large without restriction rules to capital flow and able to deliver interest rates / high returns.

If the economy is minimally in order, even better.

This is exactly the case of Brazil.

Our bag is cheap relative to the rest of the world, our economy shows the first signs of improvement and our real interest rates (after inflation) is among the largest in the world.

Global liquidity is simply gigantic before the quantitative easing programs adopted by Central Banks.

The market is still underestimating the potential of the Brazilian recovery.

When you begin to realize the improvement, the flow of capital into Brazil will increase significantly.

And the absorption of a tiny percentage of international capital would be enough to translate into a brutal effect on the prices here.

It is as summarized Giuliano de Marchi, JP Morgan, told InfoMoney:

" 'I'm going to Brazil, [my allocation] was only 1% [of the total], will increase to 2%'.  For this investor, it is only 2%, but Brazil is already 100% more. It's a bit what happened in commodity boom, the money back to the country. "

It is noteworthy that a positive reversal in the commodity cycle has begun.





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